#MTGov Daily Rundown: Bullock Claims Disputed by New JP Morgan Findings on State Fiscal Health

Governor Bullock Repeatedly Touts Montana as the “number 1 most fiscally prudent state in the nation,” but he is using  outdated 2012 data.

Governor Bullock has consistently proclaimed that, according to JP Morgan, Montana is “the most fiscally prudent state in the nation.” He’s made that claim in his ads, on social media, and said it repeatedly (time stamp 17:43) during Monday Night’s debate in Billings. However, Bullock is basing this claim on a report from 2014 that looks at 2012 data (before Bullock took office).

Here is a Missoulian story highlighting the report: “J.P. Morgan study: Montana is most fiscally prudent state” 6/27/2014

Here is a link to article referenced by the Missoulian, from Governing: “The Mixed Picture of What the States Owe,” 6/12/2014

The report uses a standard method on how states are projected to fair over 30 years based on a 6 percent rate of return on investments and revenue to liability ratio.

   See the graph included below:

Notice that the very bottom of the graph says “All data as of 2012.”

Updated Reports for 2016 from JP Morgan show Montana ranks as 26, contradicting Bullock’s claims

When it comes to data from the actual time of the Bullock Administration, the more recent data shows that Montana dropped precipitously from number 1 to number 26.

The most recent JP Morgan findings (Governing: “States and the Ever-Deepening Fiscal Hole,” 6/6/2016) use new rules from the Government Accounting Standards Board that standardize the reporting of liabilities and 2015 data to update the findings.

See the latest graph:

The Bottom Line: Governor Bullock can no longer use this benchmark to claim that Montana is “the most fiscally prudent state in the nation.”